Emerging and Innovative Modelling Practices
These sessions will explore the impact of transport modelling approaches in delivering benefits around VKT reduction and cost-benefit as well as impacts of the electric vehicles
Session Outline
- Session Chair - Bruce Johnson, Arup
- Dr Tamas Matrai, Aurecon - Comprehensive sensitivity analysis of cost-benefit analysis variables for transport projects
- Manuela Burgers, Department of Transport and Planning VIC - EV Impacts on the Victorian Transport Network
- Bala Arumugham, Mott MacDonald - Modelling the Decide and Provide approach: Case Study on VKT, CO2 reduction and Mode shift
- James Eunson, Department of Transport and Planning VIC - Nowcasting
Dr Tamas Matrai, Aurecon - Comprehensive sensitivity analysis of cost-benefit analysis variables for transport projects
Dr Tamas Matrai
Aurecon - Senior Consultant
Tamas is a Senior Consultant specialising in engineering, planning, modelling and appraising across multiple sectors.
He is experienced in designing and delivering sustainable solutions by applying innovative engineering capabilities combined with comprehensive analysis and strategic thinking.
Comprehensive sensitivity analysis of cost-benefit analysis variables for transport projects
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is the universally applied tool for assessing economic viability, used in decision-making for transport investments. Its framework is heavily influenced by the numerous variables it considers through estimating and valuing the intervention’s effects. This presentation showcases the comprehensive analyses done to understand the sensitivity of significant variables of three typical CBA models for transport interventions. The sensitivity test of the three analysed models provided similar results regarding which variables are most influential in CBAs. The main aim was to understand the prevailing appraisal approach better and to help focus on further methodological improvements.
Manuela Burgers, Department of Transport and Planning VIC - EV Impacts on the Victorian Transport Network
Manuela Burgers
Department of Transport and Planning, Victoria - Manager
Manuela Burgers is currently the Manager, Forecasting Insights at the Victorian Department of Transport and Planning. She has worked in the field of transport modelling for the past 16 years. Prior to that she worked in air quality modelling at EPA Victoria.
EV Impacts on the Victorian Transport Network
Electric vehicles will play an important role in the decarbonisation of the transport sector. The Victorian Department of Transport and Planning has undertaken scenario modelling to better understand the impact of electric vehicles on travel behaviours. This investigation focuses on the potential impact of additional vehicle trips on the transport network resulting from the reduced operating costs associated with EVs.
Bala Arumugham, Mott MacDonald - Modelling the Decide and Provide approach – Case Study on VKT Reduction Programme
Bala Arumugham
Mott MacDonald - Principal Transport Engineer
Bala is currently Principal Transport Engineer at Mott MacDonald, based in Auckland NZ. He is currently the Transport Modelling Lead for VKT Reduction Programme project and has around 15-years’ experience in Transport Planning and Engineering.
Modelling the Decide and Provide approach: Case Study on VKT, CO2 reduction and Mode shift
'Decide and Provide’ approach is becoming more commonly adopted during/ post Covid in New Zealand and other countries. Traditional four-step models are largely based on the ‘Predict and Provide’ approach. This presentation aims to explain few of the key points to consider when modelling the ‘Decide and Provide’ approach based on the extensive modelling undertaken for VKT Reduction programme (VKT-RP). NZ has taken a vision led approach in VKT reduction and was one of the first countries in the world to refer to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in primary legislation. In Auckland, transport contributes to nearly 40% of the total CO2e emissions and thereby has a vision (target) to reduce the car vkt by 29% by 2035.
James Eunson, Department of Transport and Planning VIC - Nowcasting
James Eunson
Department of Transport and Planning VIC - Manager Transport Modelling & Engineering
James Eunson is the Manager of Transport Modelling & Forecasting and the Department of Transport and Planning. James is responsible for the application of the Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM) and has a keen interest in using models to help understand new and emerging transport problems.
Nowcasting
Nowcasting uses current strategic modelling tools and framework to estimate what is currently materialising on the transport network. The COVID-19 pandemic instantly changed travel behavior rendering many strategic models obsolete overnight, as observed data is beginning to show signs of the emerging new ‘normal’ it provides the first opportunity to understand what enhancements are required to our current strategic models to match observed trends.
