Modelling Workshop 2022

Hosted by the AITPM Transport Modelling Network (TMN), this Modelling Workshop is the first opportunity in three years for the industry across Australia and New Zealand to get together to discuss the big issues in the areas of transport and land use modelling.

The Modelling Workshop is aimed to create stronger networks, share knowledge and promote improved practice between public sector, private sector and academic researchers.

The structure of the day is setup in a way with presentation style format combined with panel sessions and networking sessions to ensure attendees get the most out of the day.

Who should attend?

Anyone who uses transport or land use models or outputs from models, or with an interest in modelling including: those in State or Local Government who use consultants for modelling, modellers of all levels, project managers, consultants, modelling software providers, academics, students, transport planners and traffic engineers.

Program as at 19 July 2022

PLEASE NOTE: The program is subject to change.

VENUE: The International Convention Centre, Darling Harbour, Sydney - Level 3

Keynote Speaker

Dr Tom van Vuren 

Regional Director UK & Europe, Veitch Lister Consulting

Tom van Vuren is the Regional Director for UK and Europe at Veitch Lister Consulting. As his Twitter profile says, he is passionate about transport modelling and he is always on the lookout for new ways in which data and modelling can be improved to support decision-making in transport and planning. He calls himself a pracademic.
Tom is an advisor to the UK Department for Transport on strategic modelling and appraisal. Recently, the British transport modelling and analysis debate has shifted to supporting the climate change agenda of both national and local government; Tom is part of the DfT's process of ensuring that existing analytical tools are used well to assess the proposed measures to reach the government's target of net zero by 2050 (are targets deliverable, and how much do each of the carbon reduction interventions contribute), and in the specification of necessary model enhancements to do that better. One of Tom's other interests is validating that the DfT's Uncertainty Toolkit and its Common Analytical Scenarios can be applied proportionally and consistently in practice.

While he was based in Sydney between 2018 and 2020, Tom was a committee member of AITPM's NSW branch, and worked professionally with a number of TfNSW's strategic transport models, and he continues to work in Australian practice. Tom is a Visiting Professor at the University of Leeds, and the Policy Director at the Transport Planning Society. He is proud to be a Chartered Transport Planning Professional.

Policy solutions for reshaping mobility: climate, communities and inclusivity

Tom will discuss lessons learnt from the other side of the world, with respect to the reshaping of mobility to reflect better place, people but mainly the challenges of climate change. As a transport modeller and analyst, his presentation will look at doing things right, as well as doing the right thing.

Some of the European initiatives he will consider include:

• Scottish Government's commitment to reduce car kilometres by 20% by 2030, and the underpinning evidence base
• The review by the Welsh Government of all roads schemes in the light of their Well-Being of Future Generations Act (2015)
• The UK Government's Transport Decarbonisation Plan, its targets and interventions, incl a aim of 50% of urban trips made by active modes by 2030

Inevitable his contribution will look at how to provide evidence, both whether decarbonisation targets that have been set can be achieved by the proposed interventions, and how modelling and analysis needs to adjust to be better placed to support the climate change objectives at local and national level:

• The route to net zero is as important as the end state - has the use of models been set up to assess this?
• Behaviour change is essential to achieve net zero; technology alone will not get us there. Integrated spatial and transport planning requires a fresh look at models and assumptions
• Much finer granularity is required to reflect the role of active modes and the impacts on people and place, rather than movement
• Dealing with uncertainty, and the use of Common Analytical Scenarios (LB Johnson: "Ranges are for cattle, give me a number!")
• The role of digital, how to reflect that in our forecasts without losing sight of equity impacts
• Avoid, shift, improve - using data and modelling to illustrate the challenge. For example, analysis of current travellers in Greater Manchester, shows that for those wanting to shift from car to public transport, this entails (on average) an increase in generalised journey costs (reflecting time and cost differences) of some 800%, a factor of 8.