Modelling the Traffic Impacts of Short Notice Bushfire Evacuations in Australia
Aaron Tomlins & Kasun Wijayaratna
McLaren Traffic Engineering & University of Technology Sydney (UTS), New South Wales
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ABSTRACT
Cities and towns around Australia have experienced and continue to experience major bushfire disasters, such as the catastrophes of the 2019/2020 bushfire season. The most destructive bushfires are fast-moving, intense and can often induce short notice evacuations, resulting in a sudden increase in the road network traffic. A number of these suburban communities that are at risk are also characterised by their limited road access options, often influenced by their geographical setting. Short notice evacuations within these communities may cause adverse effects on the road network, limiting the success of these short-notice evacuations and impeding access for emergency vehicles.
This study has developed a microsimulation traffic modelling framework for making quantitative and qualitative assessments of the traffic impacts caused by short notice evacuations and enabling the assessment of the relative effectiveness of a range of evacuation strategies. Multiple evacuation participation intensities have been applied in the microsimulation model to capture the impacts of Australia's unique'Prepare, Stay and Defend or Prepare and Leave Early' bushfire evacuation management policy.
Through the preliminary assessment of a community on Sydney's urban fringe, this methodology has already identified substantial benefits in evaluating the performance of local road networks, with limited access points, under an Australian short notice bushfire evacuation. Comparative analysis of qualitative and quantitative results from three example evacuation management strategies that were applied to this Sydney case study has identified their relative impact on evacuation performance.
This study highlights the benefits microsimulation modelling has in being able to test and compare different bushfire evacuation strategies, especially in communities that are limited by their road access options.
Author(s)
Aaron Tomlins | McLaren Traffic Engineering
Aaron Tomlins is a Graduate Traffic Engineer at McLaren Traffic Engineering, having recently completed a Bachelor of Civil Engineering (Honours) / Bachelor of Commerce degree at the University of New South Wales.
As a Graduate Traffic Engineer at McLaren Traffic Engineering, Aaron is developing in a range of traffic engineering skill sets and managing a number of projects across the company, working closely with clients and our team of engineers to provide high-quality analysis, advice and reports for all of our projects.
Aaron regularly undertakes Traffic and Parking Impact Assessments for various land-use types, which includes undertaking traffic modelling (SIDRA & Aimsun) and design compliance assessments (to AS2890 Standards and AUSTROADS Design Guides), amongst other roles.
Finally, Aaron also works to support the company’s director and senior engineers, in producing analysis and evidence for the NSW Land and Environment Court, as part of the expert witness process.
Kasun Wijayaratna | UTS
Kasun Wijayaratna is a Lecturer at the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Joint Program Leader, Tactical Planning, Health monitoring and Safety of Transport Systems at the Transport Research Centre at UTS. He is a practical, application focused transport researcher and lecturer with over 10 years of industry experience. He has been involved in delivering many government planning projects, specifically providing transport modelling advice. Kasun’s research interest is in transport network reliability with a focus on travel behaviour under different information scenarios. He has over 30 peer reviewed articles extending across network modelling, traffic management, parking and car-sharing.
University of Technology Sydney (UTS)
Kasun Wijayaratna is a Lecturer at the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Joint Program Leader, Tactical Planning, Health monitoring and Safety of Transport Systems at the Transport Research Centre at UTS. He is a practical, application focused transport researcher and lecturer with over 10 years of industry experience. He has been involved in delivering many government planning projects, specifically providing transport modelling advice. Kasun’s research interest is in transport network reliability with a focus on travel behaviour under different information scenarios. He has over 30 peer reviewed articles extending across network modelling, traffic management, parking and car-sharing.
